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Want to get actual profits through trade ups in csgo? Don't know where to start? This is the place to go.

Want to get actual profits through trade ups in csgo? Don't know where to start? This is the place to go.

Getting the right tools

The most important thing to realize is that trade-ups are far more predictable than you may at first think. The odds as well as EXACT float levels (allowing you to freely manipulate the float rating as long as you find the correct materials) can easily be calculated. You can of course use a calculator but a more efficient method is using a trade up simulator. The most popular is csgo.exchange and it does not require any downloads to use. I may make a more in depth guide on using exchange in the future however it is quite simple and self explanatory. You can look for good trade-up ideas on Youtube or other websites but keep in mind that the more popular the video is, the more people will be doing that trade up and the less profit you will likely be able to make from it. I recommend looking for smaller channels or developing your own trade-up recipe using the tips below.
https://csgo.exchange/contract/tradeup

Csgo exchange above - make sure to use new theory as seen on the left. You pick the float when selecting the actual item.

Understanding float

Before being able to gather the correct skins it is important to understand exactly what you are looking for and why. The most profitable trade-ups are those which use the cheapest materials for the highest outcomes. This can be achieved quite simply in many cases using the float system. It is actually the average float of the items you trade up that decides the float of the outcomes and not the label (FN WW etc.). You can take advantage of this by using low float items from each category - especially if there is a major price difference between them, for example, Factory new for 1$ and minimal float for .50$. Ideally you could use 9 minimal floats and 1 low float factory new to trade up to factory new. 

It is also vital to recognize that different items have different ranges of float they can be. Some items which cannot be battle scarred for instance will not require as low of an average float as other items. This is because the float is calculated using percentages. The same goes for items which have a smaller window for being factory new, for example a minimum float of 0.06 (0.07 and below is factory new). would require the average float of the materials (with a float range of 0-1) to be around 0.01 as that is approximately equal in terms of bottom 1% of float.

This system can result in factory new skins producing lower quality skins as well if the skin you are using has a lower maximum float value so be careful when choosing skins to trade up. 

Working out profitability and understanding the odds

You will need to do some math for this part so bring out your calculators. I recommend using steam prices for the most safety when calculating profitability but prices on csgo exchange are normally accurate. Firstly take all the items you are using and work out the total. Note that you may have to pay more for lower float items of the same quality. Firstly add together the values of the items you are using (csgo exchange uses buy order prices but these can give you items with any, normally high, float value). This is the total you are aiming to beat on average. Next perform the following calculation 

(Total price of items with same percentage chance)x(percentage chance of ONE item)  + (Same calculation for items with other drop chances)
After you do this multiply the result by 0.85 to factor in for steam tax

If the final value is HIGHER than the initial total cost then the trade up will be profitable on average (when repeated many times) however, you may still loose money on individual trade ups. In theory you will make money over a wider period so you should begin with low risk trade ups where any loss is relatively low allowing you to repeat it. Keep in mind this is relative to your starting balance but I do not recommend doing trade ups where you can loose more than 20% of your money. Risky trade ups can be profitable if you can repeat them multiple times but as long as the average profit is higher than the expense the odds are in your favor.

Getting the right materials

This is likely the most difficult part. The materials required can easily be bought off the market however, finding the skins which can actually be made into a profit can be a challenge. This is because other people have the exact same idea and so low float skins are almost always sold out on the market with only higher float skins readily available. One strategy to find low float skins is sniping the market and buy any new ones being sold. If the market is slow you should check the float of every skin you want to buy but I do not recommend searching for low floats in older skins as all will be sold out (for example out of thousands of listings there are no minimal ware market price skins with under 0.1 float for any of the shattered web collection. Just the other day I managed to snipe a 0.000444 float tec-9 flashout at market price for instance.

Another strategy for gathering skins is to mass buy at the beginning of a new case update. This is when people will most likely open these skins and often sell them on the market regardless of their float for the standard price. You CAN check floats but beware that there are certainly mass buyers (as seen in the steam market with profiles selling hundreds of the same skin) who will likely buy the skin in the mean time. For the mass buy strategy you should aim for skins which will have good trade ups to a higher float tier. This will require fast analytical judgement of the new case and understanding of the market. Make sure not to buy too soon or you may be overpaying massively! Once you mass buy skins sort out all low float skins and sell the rest. These skins will not have a higher value on the market on first glance but a skin with low minimal wear float is worth the same as a high float factory new skin in terms of trade ups.

Finally you must understand that availability is one of the most important factors in trade ups. As long as a skin has profitable trade up results you can definitely mix and match them with other skins of the same rarity. So if you cant find 10 copies of one skin, use 5 of that one and 5 of another. This applies the most to skins from the same collection if they have similar prices and float limits they can be interchangeable. 

Doing the trade-up

As you will likely know the trade up is done in game. Simply right click on any item and select the trade up option. I recommend double checking in csgo.exchange that the items you are using will have the exact float you want as disregarding this may lead to some disappointment - speaking from experience. Once you get your skin you can sell it, keep it or trade it. You can of course use different sites to buy and sell your skins but the steam market is a good starting point. Remember that smart contracts are a good way to 'buy' skins for a discount as well even if you don't aim to sell it.

I will do my best to respond to any concerns or questions.